Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd. (601658.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.89 - $158.68$139.11
Multi-Stage$20.30 - $22.20$21.23
Blended Fair Value$80.17
Current Price$5.75
Upside1,294.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.65%0.00%0.340.350.300.240.190.170.110.050.080.00
YoY Growth---1.03%16.82%22.73%27.15%14.67%52.66%99.60%-33.64%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.61%7.33%6.41%4.50%3.25%3.16%1.94%0.97%1.47%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)87,223.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40,673.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)46,550.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17,444.6010,902.886,541.73
Cash Retained (M)46,550.0046,550.0046,550.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-17,444.60-10,902.88-6,541.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)29,105.4035,647.1340,008.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)109,315.17109,315.17109,315.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.330.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.330.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$43.89$139.11$158.68
Upside / Downside663.23%2,319.28%2,659.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)87,223.0092,892.5098,930.51105,360.99112,209.45119,503.07123,088.16
Payout Ratio46.63%55.30%63.98%72.65%81.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40,673.0051,374.0563,294.3876,547.3191,255.70107,552.76113,856.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)47,546.9647,997.6548,448.33
Year 2 PV (M)54,215.4755,248.1256,290.52
Year 3 PV (M)60,683.0062,424.9964,200.00
Year 4 PV (M)66,953.9369,528.7972,177.22
Year 5 PV (M)73,032.5976,560.0980,222.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,916,295.432,008,853.212,104,953.40
Equity Value (M)2,218,727.382,320,612.862,426,292.07
Shares Outstanding (M)109,315.17109,315.17109,315.17
Fair Value$20.30$21.23$22.20
Upside / Downside252.98%269.19%286.01%

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