Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co., Ltd (601607.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$80.49 - $302.94$237.68
Multi-Stage$37.45 - $40.99$39.19
Blended Fair Value$138.44
Current Price$17.95
Upside671.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.88%11.16%0.971.070.830.720.650.700.640.470.390.37
YoY Growth---9.48%28.68%15.62%10.65%-6.41%9.60%34.71%21.24%4.74%10.12%
Dividend Yield--5.24%6.10%4.10%2.95%3.33%3.57%2.99%1.92%1.67%2.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,645.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,342.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,303.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,129.08705.68423.41
Cash Retained (M)4,303.414,303.414,303.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,129.08-705.68-423.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,174.323,597.733,880.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,706.083,706.083,706.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.860.971.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.860.971.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.331.41
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$80.49$237.68$302.94
Upside / Downside348.43%1,224.12%1,587.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,645.426,012.376,403.176,819.387,262.647,734.717,966.75
Payout Ratio23.77%37.02%50.26%63.51%76.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,342.012,225.623,218.434,330.905,574.396,961.247,369.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,058.612,078.132,097.64
Year 2 PV (M)2,753.552,805.992,858.94
Year 3 PV (M)3,427.293,525.683,625.93
Year 4 PV (M)4,080.334,237.254,398.65
Year 5 PV (M)4,713.134,940.785,177.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)121,774.05127,655.78133,762.62
Equity Value (M)138,806.96145,243.61151,920.91
Shares Outstanding (M)3,706.083,706.083,706.08
Fair Value$37.45$39.19$40.99
Upside / Downside108.66%118.33%128.37%

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