Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $34.63 - $70.10 | $48.34 |
| Multi-Stage | $44.70 - $48.99 | $46.80 |
| Blended Fair Value | $47.57 | |
| Current Price | $8.83 | |
| Upside | 438.77% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 14.68% | 21.48% | 0.77 | 0.35 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.54 | 0.39 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 122.46% | -49.42% | 8.25% | 18.19% | 37.77% | 154.40% | -15.99% | 54.03% | 8.41% | -1.10% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 8.44% | 4.45% | 8.70% | 8.31% | 5.15% | 5.05% | 1.37% | 1.59% | 1.03% | 0.95% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 8,197.51 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 4,303.61 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 3,893.90 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,639.50 | 1,024.69 | 614.81 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 3,893.90 | 3,893.90 | 3,893.90 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,639.50 | -1,024.69 | -614.81 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 2,254.40 | 2,869.21 | 3,279.08 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 4,042.71 | 4,042.71 | 4,042.71 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.56 | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.06 | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.56 | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.62 | 1.77 | 1.88 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | 2.24% | 3.24% | 4.24% |
| Fair Value | $34.63 | $48.34 | $70.10 |
| Upside / Downside | 292.21% | 447.51% | 693.93% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 8,197.51 | 8,463.31 | 8,737.72 | 9,021.04 | 9,313.54 | 9,615.52 | 9,903.99 |
| Payout Ratio | 52.50% | 60.00% | 67.50% | 75.00% | 82.50% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 4,303.61 | 5,077.92 | 5,897.91 | 6,765.74 | 7,683.65 | 8,653.97 | 9,161.19 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | 2.24% | 3.24% | 4.24% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 4,698.37 | 4,744.32 | 4,790.28 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 5,049.19 | 5,148.44 | 5,248.66 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 5,359.20 | 5,518.00 | 5,679.89 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 5,631.37 | 5,854.94 | 6,085.09 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 5,868.45 | 6,161.10 | 6,465.32 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 154,098.79 | 161,783.60 | 169,771.99 |
| Equity Value (M) | 180,705.36 | 189,210.40 | 198,041.23 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 4,042.71 | 4,042.71 | 4,042.71 |
| Fair Value | $44.70 | $46.80 | $48.99 |
| Upside / Downside | 406.22% | 430.04% | 454.78% |
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