Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited (601225.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$235.79 - $392.49$367.82
Multi-Stage$64.84 - $70.91$67.82
Blended Fair Value$217.82
Current Price$20.00
Upside989.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.18%20.50%1.542.201.710.890.430.400.460.330.200.19
YoY Growth---29.81%28.32%91.44%106.34%9.20%-13.03%39.56%63.10%8.20%-22.42%
Dividend Yield--7.78%8.88%8.41%5.43%3.92%5.30%4.82%4.24%3.24%4.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,129.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,357.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,772.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,825.932,391.201,434.72
Cash Retained (M)4,772.374,772.374,772.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,825.93-2,391.20-1,434.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)946.442,381.163,337.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,693.029,693.029,693.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.250.34
LTM Dividend per Share1.481.481.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.250.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.581.731.83
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$235.79$367.82$392.49
Upside / Downside1,078.96%1,739.10%1,862.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,129.6320,373.0621,697.3123,107.6324,609.6326,209.2626,995.53
Payout Ratio75.05%78.04%81.03%84.02%87.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,357.2615,899.5417,581.6519,415.2621,412.9623,588.3324,970.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)14,829.8514,970.4115,110.98
Year 2 PV (M)15,295.5115,586.8415,880.93
Year 3 PV (M)15,754.3216,206.5716,667.39
Year 4 PV (M)16,206.3516,829.6017,470.65
Year 5 PV (M)16,651.6717,455.9518,291.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)549,761.25576,314.92603,884.87
Equity Value (M)628,498.93657,364.29687,305.83
Shares Outstanding (M)9,693.029,693.029,693.02
Fair Value$64.84$67.82$70.91
Upside / Downside224.20%239.09%254.54%

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