Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $34.43 - $121.89 | $57.05 |
| Multi-Stage | $29.97 - $32.78 | $31.35 |
| Blended Fair Value | $44.20 | |
| Current Price | $5.51 | |
| Upside | 702.16% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 25.56% | 17.20% | 1.00 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.30 | 0.77 | 0.53 | 0.26 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 115.23% | 0.71% | 36.18% | -1.23% | 7.06% | 5.51% | -60.74% | 44.53% | 103.78% | 28.44% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 16.55% | 8.13% | 10.48% | 7.39% | 7.14% | 6.63% | 4.83% | 11.23% | 6.68% | 3.75% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 26,277.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 16,951.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 9,326.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 5,255.40 | 3,284.63 | 1,970.78 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 9,326.00 | 9,326.00 | 9,326.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -5,255.40 | -3,284.63 | -1,970.78 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 4,070.60 | 6,041.38 | 7,355.23 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 21,185.02 | 21,185.02 | 21,185.02 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.19 | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.19 | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.99 | 1.09 | 1.15 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | 4.03% | 5.03% | 6.03% |
| Fair Value | $34.43 | $57.05 | $121.89 |
| Upside / Downside | 524.90% | 935.41% | 2,112.10% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 26,277.00 | 27,599.54 | 28,988.64 | 30,447.65 | 31,980.10 | 33,589.68 | 34,597.37 |
| Payout Ratio | 64.51% | 69.61% | 74.71% | 79.80% | 84.90% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 16,951.00 | 19,211.24 | 21,656.06 | 24,298.31 | 27,151.67 | 30,230.71 | 32,002.56 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | 4.03% | 5.03% | 6.03% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 17,778.31 | 17,949.20 | 18,120.09 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 18,545.98 | 18,904.23 | 19,265.91 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 19,256.68 | 19,817.34 | 20,388.78 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 19,913.02 | 20,689.77 | 21,489.03 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 20,517.48 | 21,522.73 | 22,566.99 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 538,804.32 | 565,202.78 | 592,625.97 |
| Equity Value (M) | 634,815.79 | 664,086.06 | 694,456.77 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 21,185.02 | 21,185.02 | 21,185.02 |
| Fair Value | $29.97 | $31.35 | $32.78 |
| Upside / Downside | 443.84% | 468.91% | 494.93% |
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