Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Anhui Expressway Company Limited (600012.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$118.24 - $230.83$216.32
Multi-Stage$35.20 - $38.58$36.86
Blended Fair Value$126.59
Current Price$13.33
Upside849.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.00%12.79%0.730.550.550.230.230.250.230.230.230.23
YoY Growth--33.28%0.00%139.13%0.00%-8.00%8.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%4.55%
Dividend Yield--4.26%4.00%6.16%2.97%3.16%4.89%3.27%2.41%1.38%1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,925.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)177.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,748.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)385.02240.64144.38
Cash Retained (M)1,748.041,748.041,748.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-385.02-240.64-144.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,363.021,507.401,603.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,658.611,658.611,658.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.820.910.97
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.820.910.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.021.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$118.24$216.32$230.83
Upside / Downside787.02%1,522.83%1,631.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,925.122,050.262,183.522,325.452,476.612,637.592,716.72
Payout Ratio9.20%25.36%41.52%57.68%73.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)177.08519.92906.581,341.311,828.722,373.832,512.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)484.39488.98493.57
Year 2 PV (M)786.89801.88817.01
Year 3 PV (M)1,084.651,115.781,147.51
Year 4 PV (M)1,377.721,430.701,485.20
Year 5 PV (M)1,666.151,746.631,830.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)52,991.0355,550.5158,207.96
Equity Value (M)58,390.8261,134.4863,981.43
Shares Outstanding (M)1,658.611,658.611,658.61
Fair Value$35.20$36.86$38.58
Upside / Downside164.10%176.51%189.39%

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