Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $23.02 - $43.93 | $31.44 |
| Multi-Stage | $31.82 - $34.89 | $33.33 |
| Blended Fair Value | $32.38 | |
| Current Price | $11.90 | |
| Upside | 172.10% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 6.30% | 16.65% | 1.74 | 1.26 | 1.71 | 1.74 | 1.60 | 1.28 | 1.03 | 0.18 | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 37.65% | -26.06% | -1.71% | 8.45% | 25.11% | 24.58% | 461.41% | -48.94% | -21.14% | 22.01% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 16.68% | 17.48% | 23.77% | 21.73% | 14.59% | 12.63% | 8.99% | 1.57% | 2.91% | 3.63% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 48,853.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 23,091.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 25,762.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 9,770.60 | 6,106.63 | 3,663.98 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 25,762.00 | 25,762.00 | 25,762.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -9,770.60 | -6,106.63 | -3,663.98 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 15,991.40 | 19,655.38 | 22,098.03 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 33,009.13 | 33,009.13 | 33,009.13 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.48 | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.48 | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.18 | 1.29 | 1.37 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | 1.80% | 2.80% | 3.80% |
| Fair Value | $23.02 | $31.44 | $43.93 |
| Upside / Downside | 93.48% | 164.16% | 269.14% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 48,853.00 | 50,219.26 | 51,623.73 | 53,067.47 | 54,551.60 | 56,077.22 | 57,759.54 |
| Payout Ratio | 47.27% | 55.81% | 64.36% | 72.91% | 81.45% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 23,091.00 | 28,028.89 | 33,224.91 | 38,689.64 | 44,434.05 | 50,469.50 | 53,427.58 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | 1.80% | 2.80% | 3.80% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 25,932.78 | 26,187.53 | 26,442.28 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 28,441.35 | 29,002.88 | 29,569.90 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 30,642.50 | 31,554.45 | 32,484.32 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 32,560.31 | 33,858.71 | 35,195.56 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 34,217.22 | 35,931.23 | 37,713.25 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 898,505.37 | 943,513.35 | 990,307.16 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,050,299.52 | 1,100,048.15 | 1,151,712.47 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 33,009.13 | 33,009.13 | 33,009.13 |
| Fair Value | $31.82 | $33.33 | $34.89 |
| Upside / Downside | 167.38% | 180.05% | 193.20% |
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