Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation (4188.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,612.96 - $3,700.09$2,353.44
Multi-Stage$2,141.55 - $2,350.10$2,243.85
Blended Fair Value$2,298.64
Current Price$851.30
Upside170.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-4.33%9.95%32.3431.3230.2927.2524.2140.3537.5527.6016.6514.57
YoY Growth--3.26%3.38%11.17%12.54%-39.98%7.45%36.04%65.81%14.29%16.27%
Dividend Yield--4.27%3.41%3.51%3.70%2.59%6.43%4.83%2.98%1.79%3.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)114,231.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45,542.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)68,689.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22,846.2014,278.888,567.33
Cash Retained (M)68,689.0068,689.0068,689.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-22,846.20-14,278.88-8,567.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)45,842.8054,410.1360,121.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,407.891,407.891,407.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share32.5638.6542.70
LTM Dividend per Share32.3532.3532.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share32.5638.6542.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend64.9170.9975.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Fair Value$1,612.96$2,353.44$3,700.09
Upside / Downside89.47%176.45%334.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)114,231.00117,932.17121,753.25125,698.15129,770.86133,975.53137,994.79
Payout Ratio39.87%49.89%59.92%69.95%79.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45,542.0058,841.8672,955.7787,922.50103,782.51120,577.97127,645.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Year 1 PV (M)54,790.3055,326.2055,862.10
Year 2 PV (M)63,254.8964,498.3265,753.86
Year 3 PV (M)70,982.5873,085.8475,230.24
Year 4 PV (M)78,017.7081,115.1184,303.84
Year 5 PV (M)84,402.2888,611.4792,986.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,663,613.592,796,449.512,934,533.04
Equity Value (M)3,015,061.353,159,086.453,308,670.01
Shares Outstanding (M)1,407.891,407.891,407.89
Fair Value$2,141.55$2,243.85$2,350.10
Upside / Downside151.56%163.58%176.06%

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