Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. (4063.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,937.24 - $10,553.17$7,028.48
Multi-Stage$3,605.36 - $3,937.38$3,768.37
Blended Fair Value$5,398.43
Current Price$4,772.00
Upside13.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.56%17.00%103.34106.6398.6260.8246.1544.1237.6826.9124.7322.57
YoY Growth---3.09%8.13%62.15%31.79%4.59%17.09%40.06%8.81%9.54%5.04%
Dividend Yield--2.17%1.71%2.07%1.99%1.24%1.75%1.83%1.36%1.21%1.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)516,429.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)103,800.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)412,629.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)103,285.8064,553.6338,732.18
Cash Retained (M)412,629.00412,629.00412,629.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-103,285.80-64,553.63-38,732.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)309,343.20348,075.38373,896.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,981.031,981.031,981.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share156.15175.70188.74
LTM Dividend per Share52.4052.4052.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share156.15175.70188.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend208.55228.10241.13
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4,937.24$7,028.48$10,553.17
Upside / Downside3.46%47.29%121.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)516,429.00549,996.89585,746.68623,820.22664,368.53707,552.49728,779.06
Payout Ratio20.10%34.08%48.06%62.04%76.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)103,800.00187,437.04281,508.34387,016.99505,052.38636,797.24674,120.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)168,864.38170,464.99172,065.60
Year 2 PV (M)228,484.39232,836.38237,229.42
Year 3 PV (M)282,994.46291,118.21299,395.97
Year 4 PV (M)332,710.85345,505.97358,666.64
Year 5 PV (M)377,932.59396,186.88415,139.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,751,364.786,029,157.856,317,582.71
Equity Value (M)7,142,351.457,465,270.277,800,080.13
Shares Outstanding (M)1,981.031,981.031,981.03
Fair Value$3,605.36$3,768.37$3,937.38
Upside / Downside-24.45%-21.03%-17.49%

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