Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.,Ltd. (301163.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.94 - $4.17$3.55
Multi-Stage$4.54 - $4.98$4.76
Blended Fair Value$4.15
Current Price$28.10
Upside-85.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS15.06%0.00%0.280.250.020.020.090.140.030.410.000.00
YoY Growth--12.43%921.65%40.13%-79.60%-38.58%308.70%-91.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.25%1.17%0.09%0.05%0.26%0.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.214.502.70
Cash Retained (M)24.3924.3924.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.21-4.50-2.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.1819.8821.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)81.6581.6581.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.94$3.55$4.17
Upside / Downside-89.55%-87.38%-85.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36.0335.6735.3134.9634.6134.2735.29
Payout Ratio32.32%43.86%55.39%66.93%78.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.6515.6419.5623.4027.1630.8432.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)14.1114.2514.40
Year 2 PV (M)15.9116.2316.56
Year 3 PV (M)17.1617.6918.23
Year 4 PV (M)17.9518.7019.47
Year 5 PV (M)18.3819.3420.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)287.08302.03317.59
Equity Value (M)370.59388.24406.58
Shares Outstanding (M)81.6581.6581.65
Fair Value$4.54$4.76$4.98
Upside / Downside-83.85%-83.08%-82.28%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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