Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Samyang Packaging Corporation (272550.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8,884.79 - $13,801.54$11,158.54
Multi-Stage$20,753.04 - $22,842.55$21,777.26
Blended Fair Value$16,467.90
Current Price$13,410.00
Upside22.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.13%0.00%507.41761.11913.33913.33685.00456.660.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---33.33%-16.67%0.00%33.33%50.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.67%4.23%4.82%3.97%2.74%3.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,664.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,665.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,998.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,932.861,833.041,099.82
Cash Retained (M)6,998.826,998.826,998.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,932.86-1,833.04-1,099.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,065.965,165.785,899.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.5615.5615.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share261.34332.03379.16
LTM Dividend per Share492.70492.70492.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share261.34332.03379.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend754.03824.72871.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8,884.79$11,158.54$13,801.54
Upside / Downside-33.75%-16.79%2.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,664.3114,517.6614,372.4914,228.7614,086.4713,945.6114,363.98
Payout Ratio52.27%59.82%67.36%74.91%82.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,665.498,684.249,681.8610,658.6611,614.9512,551.0513,286.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)8,085.748,168.258,250.76
Year 2 PV (M)8,393.348,565.508,739.42
Year 3 PV (M)8,603.328,869.399,140.88
Year 4 PV (M)8,729.099,090.879,463.78
Year 5 PV (M)8,782.539,239.869,716.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)280,287.02294,882.22310,079.19
Equity Value (M)322,881.05338,816.09355,390.06
Shares Outstanding (M)15.5615.5615.56
Fair Value$20,753.04$21,777.26$22,842.55
Upside / Downside54.76%62.40%70.34%

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