Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sempio Foods Company (248170.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22,846.05 - $33,774.74$28,077.61
Multi-Stage$40,490.73 - $44,593.69$42,501.89
Blended Fair Value$35,289.75
Current Price$26,450.00
Upside33.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%199.92199.91199.91199.91199.92199.90202.96196.780.00198.38
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%-1.51%3.14%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.80%0.72%0.70%0.45%0.42%0.83%0.68%0.50%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,180.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)912.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,267.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,636.191,647.62988.57
Cash Retained (M)12,267.9812,267.9812,267.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,636.19-1,647.62-988.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,631.7910,620.3711,279.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.574.574.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,109.112,325.592,469.90
LTM Dividend per Share199.92199.92199.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,109.112,325.592,469.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend2,309.032,525.502,669.82
WACC / Discount Rate7.90%7.90%7.90%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$22,846.05$28,077.61$33,774.74
Upside / Downside-13.63%6.15%27.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,180.9513,049.1412,918.6512,789.4612,661.5712,534.9512,911.00
Payout Ratio6.93%23.54%40.16%56.77%73.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)912.973,071.915,187.597,260.659,291.7311,281.4611,942.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.90%7.90%7.90%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,818.122,846.872,875.63
Year 2 PV (M)4,365.824,455.384,545.84
Year 3 PV (M)5,605.655,779.015,955.91
Year 4 PV (M)6,581.086,853.847,134.99
Year 5 PV (M)7,330.217,711.918,109.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)158,210.13166,448.50175,026.54
Equity Value (M)184,911.02194,095.51203,648.25
Shares Outstanding (M)4.574.574.57
Fair Value$40,490.73$42,501.89$44,593.69
Upside / Downside53.08%60.69%68.60%

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