Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Calbee, Inc. (2229.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,327.00 - $4,632.94$3,228.44
Multi-Stage$2,694.02 - $2,950.87$2,820.05
Blended Fair Value$3,024.25
Current Price$2,745.00
Upside10.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.74%9.08%56.0752.0653.8153.5653.5751.4344.9944.9637.4329.92
YoY Growth--7.70%-3.26%0.46%-0.01%4.17%14.30%0.07%20.10%25.12%27.27%
Dividend Yield--2.04%1.68%1.97%1.96%2.09%1.72%1.53%1.08%0.85%0.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,347.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,257.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,090.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,469.402,168.381,301.03
Cash Retained (M)10,090.0010,090.0010,090.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,469.40-2,168.38-1,301.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,620.607,921.638,788.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)124.94124.94124.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share52.9963.4070.35
LTM Dividend per Share58.0958.0958.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share52.9963.4070.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend111.08121.49128.43
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate2.71%3.71%4.71%
Fair Value$2,327.00$3,228.44$4,632.94
Upside / Downside-15.23%17.61%68.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,347.0017,990.5218,657.9219,350.0820,067.9120,812.3721,436.74
Payout Ratio41.83%51.47%61.10%70.73%80.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,257.009,259.2711,400.1013,687.0316,127.9518,731.1319,828.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate2.71%3.71%4.71%
Year 1 PV (M)8,521.318,604.278,687.24
Year 2 PV (M)9,655.359,844.2810,035.04
Year 3 PV (M)10,668.3810,983.0311,303.80
Year 4 PV (M)11,569.0512,026.2312,496.82
Year 5 PV (M)12,365.5212,979.3213,617.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)283,805.05297,892.59312,534.08
Equity Value (M)336,584.66352,329.72368,674.25
Shares Outstanding (M)124.94124.94124.94
Fair Value$2,694.02$2,820.05$2,950.87
Upside / Downside-1.86%2.73%7.50%

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