Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Open Up Group Inc. (2154.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Staffing & Employment ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8,637.33 - $28,730.17$26,924.37
Multi-Stage$3,810.20 - $4,166.36$3,985.03
Blended Fair Value$15,454.70
Current Price$1,709.00
Upside804.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS34.38%28.63%75.0752.8745.6545.6620.5517.1315.8811.178.917.22
YoY Growth--41.99%15.83%-0.03%122.23%19.95%7.90%42.12%25.41%23.43%19.18%
Dividend Yield--4.39%2.59%2.49%2.84%1.57%1.51%1.23%0.51%0.57%0.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,558.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,526.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,032.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,511.601,569.75941.85
Cash Retained (M)6,032.006,032.006,032.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,511.60-1,569.75-941.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,520.404,462.255,090.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)86.9386.9386.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share40.5051.3358.56
LTM Dividend per Share75.0775.0775.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share40.5051.3358.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend115.57126.41133.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.91%6.91%6.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8,637.33$26,924.37$28,730.17
Upside / Downside405.40%1,475.45%1,581.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,558.0013,374.2714,243.6015,169.4316,155.4417,205.5517,721.71
Payout Ratio51.97%59.57%67.18%74.79%82.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,526.007,967.529,568.8711,344.7213,311.0215,484.9916,392.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.91%6.91%6.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7,382.467,452.447,522.41
Year 2 PV (M)8,215.178,371.648,529.59
Year 3 PV (M)9,024.599,283.669,547.63
Year 4 PV (M)9,811.2210,188.5310,576.62
Year 5 PV (M)10,575.4911,086.2911,616.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)286,206.33300,030.20314,383.15
Equity Value (M)331,215.25346,412.75362,176.04
Shares Outstanding (M)86.9386.9386.93
Fair Value$3,810.20$3,985.03$4,166.36
Upside / Downside122.95%133.18%143.79%

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