Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Yadea Group Holdings Ltd. (1585.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$69.78 - $288.22$179.37
Multi-Stage$34.84 - $38.09$36.43
Blended Fair Value$107.90
Current Price$11.46
Upside841.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS52.08%30.07%0.280.360.230.150.090.040.030.030.000.04
YoY Growth---21.48%55.20%55.52%71.64%150.04%4.45%-3.57%0.00%-100.00%79.34%
Dividend Yield--2.34%2.96%2.03%1.21%0.65%1.91%1.26%1.52%0.00%3.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,373.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,954.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,419.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)874.78546.74328.04
Cash Retained (M)2,419.772,419.772,419.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-874.78-546.74-328.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,544.991,873.032,091.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,018.053,018.053,018.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.620.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.650.650.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.620.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.34
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$69.78$179.37$288.22
Upside / Downside508.90%1,465.21%2,415.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,373.924,658.224,961.015,283.475,626.905,992.656,172.43
Payout Ratio44.68%53.74%62.81%71.87%80.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,954.152,503.423,115.833,797.284,554.165,393.385,709.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,312.212,334.122,356.04
Year 2 PV (M)2,658.042,708.672,759.77
Year 3 PV (M)2,991.953,077.843,165.35
Year 4 PV (M)3,314.233,441.693,572.79
Year 5 PV (M)3,625.183,800.283,982.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)90,236.0894,594.5199,119.76
Equity Value (M)105,137.69109,957.11114,955.79
Shares Outstanding (M)3,018.053,018.053,018.05
Fair Value$34.84$36.43$38.09
Upside / Downside203.98%217.92%232.37%

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