Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Bank of Tianjin Co., Ltd. (1578.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.48 - $18.31$14.58
Multi-Stage$20.56 - $22.63$21.58
Blended Fair Value$18.08
Current Price$2.26
Upside699.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.33%1.59%0.120.000.000.000.180.180.180.200.180.12
YoY Growth--3,015.19%4,254.34%-98.17%-97.26%0.79%-2.55%-9.06%13.61%51.10%12.65%
Dividend Yield--7.07%0.25%0.01%0.28%6.99%6.02%3.95%3.53%2.88%1.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,731.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)733.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,997.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,346.26841.41504.85
Cash Retained (M)5,997.475,997.475,997.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,346.26-841.41-504.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,651.205,156.055,492.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,070.556,070.556,070.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.770.850.90
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.770.850.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.890.971.03
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-0.64%0.36%1.36%
Fair Value$11.48$14.58$18.31
Upside / Downside408.03%545.32%710.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,731.316,755.226,779.216,803.296,827.456,851.707,057.25
Payout Ratio10.90%26.72%42.54%58.36%74.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)733.851,805.102,883.963,970.455,064.636,166.536,527.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-0.64%0.36%1.36%
Year 1 PV (M)1,669.711,686.521,703.32
Year 2 PV (M)2,467.562,517.482,567.90
Year 3 PV (M)3,142.383,238.223,335.99
Year 4 PV (M)3,707.713,859.254,015.38
Year 5 PV (M)4,175.784,390.204,613.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)109,651.28115,281.63121,140.93
Equity Value (M)124,814.42130,973.29137,376.86
Shares Outstanding (M)6,070.556,070.556,070.55
Fair Value$20.56$21.58$22.63
Upside / Downside809.76%854.65%901.33%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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