Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Costco Wholesale Corporation (0I47.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Discount StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$835.89 - $3,712.61$1,965.88
Multi-Stage$428.24 - $468.52$448.01
Blended Fair Value$1,206.95
Current Price$886.12
Upside36.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.10%-2.68%4.9120.332.813.3712.933.332.331.558.781.68
YoY Growth---75.85%622.70%-16.49%-73.94%288.64%42.49%50.65%-82.35%423.32%-73.96%
Dividend Yield--0.55%2.12%0.47%0.64%2.40%0.87%0.78%0.71%5.09%1.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,302.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,245.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,057.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,660.401,037.75622.65
Cash Retained (M)6,057.006,057.006,057.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,660.40-1,037.75-622.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,396.605,019.255,434.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)444.72444.72444.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.8911.2912.22
LTM Dividend per Share5.055.055.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.8911.2912.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.9316.3317.27
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$835.89$1,965.88$3,712.61
Upside / Downside-5.67%121.85%318.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,302.008,841.639,416.3410,028.4010,680.2411,374.4611,715.69
Payout Ratio27.04%39.63%52.23%64.82%77.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,245.003,504.234,917.686,500.078,267.4010,237.0110,837.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,232.603,263.253,293.89
Year 2 PV (M)4,184.854,264.564,345.02
Year 3 PV (M)5,102.675,249.145,398.40
Year 4 PV (M)5,986.976,217.216,454.03
Year 5 PV (M)6,838.667,168.977,511.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)165,100.02173,074.42181,354.01
Equity Value (M)190,445.78199,237.55208,357.27
Shares Outstanding (M)444.72444.72444.72
Fair Value$428.24$448.01$468.52
Upside / Downside-51.67%-49.44%-47.13%

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