Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $252.57 - $1,248.71 | $450.45 |
| Multi-Stage | $227.34 - $249.16 | $238.04 |
| Blended Fair Value | $344.24 | |
| Current Price | $32.30 | |
| Upside | 965.77% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 5.72% | 5.30% | 1.50 | 1.97 | 1.29 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.13 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.94 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -24.01% | 52.73% | 12.78% | 0.00% | 0.88% | 13.00% | 5.26% | -1.11% | 2.61% | 5.19% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.60% | 7.17% | 5.16% | 4.25% | 4.52% | 3.17% | 2.42% | 2.03% | 2.63% | 2.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 10,063.32 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 4,357.24 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 5,706.08 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 2,012.66 | 1,257.91 | 754.75 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 5,706.08 | 5,706.08 | 5,706.08 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -2,012.66 | -1,257.91 | -754.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 3,693.41 | 4,448.16 | 4,951.33 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,258.96 | 1,258.96 | 1,258.96 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.93 | 3.53 | 3.93 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.46 | 3.46 | 3.46 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.93 | 3.53 | 3.93 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 6.39 | 6.99 | 7.39 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | 3.72% | 4.72% | 5.72% |
| Fair Value | $252.57 | $450.45 | $1,248.71 |
| Upside / Downside | 681.95% | 1,294.57% | 3,765.98% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 10,063.32 | 10,537.99 | 11,035.05 | 11,555.55 | 12,100.61 | 12,671.37 | 13,051.51 |
| Payout Ratio | 43.30% | 52.64% | 61.98% | 71.32% | 80.66% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 4,357.24 | 5,547.05 | 6,839.41 | 8,241.34 | 9,760.31 | 11,404.23 | 12,072.65 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | 3.72% | 4.72% | 5.72% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 5,166.38 | 5,216.20 | 5,266.01 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 5,932.91 | 6,047.87 | 6,163.93 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 6,658.43 | 6,852.89 | 7,051.09 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 7,344.50 | 7,631.87 | 7,927.60 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 7,992.62 | 8,385.44 | 8,793.54 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 253,113.51 | 265,553.23 | 278,477.31 |
| Equity Value (M) | 286,208.36 | 299,687.49 | 313,679.48 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,258.96 | 1,258.96 | 1,258.96 |
| Fair Value | $227.34 | $238.04 | $249.16 |
| Upside / Downside | 603.83% | 636.98% | 671.39% |
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