Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $54.33 - $85.95 | $68.77 |
| Multi-Stage | $119.65 - $131.74 | $125.57 |
| Blended Fair Value | $97.17 | |
| Current Price | $13.56 | |
| Upside | 616.60% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 12.57% | 0.48% | 0.94 | 0.92 | 0.96 | 1.00 | 0.74 | 0.52 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 1.05 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 2.17% | -4.17% | -4.00% | 35.14% | 42.31% | -45.83% | -2.81% | 3.11% | -9.10% | 17.58% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 7.94% | 9.49% | 9.95% | 8.80% | 6.98% | 3.47% | 6.06% | 4.37% | 4.56% | 5.18% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 5,897.45 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 2,064.29 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 3,833.16 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,179.49 | 737.18 | 442.31 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 3,833.16 | 3,833.16 | 3,833.16 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,179.49 | -737.18 | -442.31 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 2,653.67 | 3,095.98 | 3,390.85 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,087.21 | 1,087.21 | 1,087.21 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.44 | 2.85 | 3.12 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.44 | 2.85 | 3.12 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 4.34 | 4.75 | 5.02 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -1.52% | -0.52% | 0.48% |
| Fair Value | $54.33 | $68.77 | $85.95 |
| Upside / Downside | 300.66% | 407.14% | 533.83% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 5,897.45 | 5,866.60 | 5,835.92 | 5,805.40 | 5,775.04 | 5,744.83 | 5,917.18 |
| Payout Ratio | 35.00% | 46.00% | 57.00% | 68.00% | 79.00% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 2,064.29 | 2,698.78 | 3,326.58 | 3,947.74 | 4,562.31 | 5,170.35 | 5,473.39 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -1.52% | -0.52% | 0.48% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 2,512.30 | 2,537.81 | 2,563.32 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 2,882.75 | 2,941.59 | 3,001.03 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 3,184.64 | 3,282.65 | 3,382.64 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 3,426.11 | 3,567.41 | 3,713.03 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 3,614.43 | 3,801.71 | 3,996.68 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 114,463.24 | 120,394.15 | 126,568.40 |
| Equity Value (M) | 130,083.47 | 136,525.32 | 143,225.10 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,087.21 | 1,087.21 | 1,087.21 |
| Fair Value | $119.65 | $125.57 | $131.74 |
| Upside / Downside | 782.37% | 826.06% | 871.51% |
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| LREN3.SA | Lojas Renner S.A. | 4.75% | $0.64 | 45.84% |
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| CHE-UN.TO | Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund | 4.73% | $0.70 | 71.01% |
| GVH | Globavend Holdings Limited | 4.73% | $0.07 | 61.06% |
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| 601598.SS | Sinotrans Limited | 4.72% | $0.29 | 56.81% |
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