Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited (0291.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$304.02 - $540.23$506.27
Multi-Stage$86.23 - $94.38$90.23
Blended Fair Value$298.25
Current Price$22.81
Upside1,207.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS47.18%28.40%1.040.590.540.390.170.150.180.170.003.62
YoY Growth--75.98%9.89%35.75%128.34%15.20%-17.57%5.21%0.00%-100.00%4,152.90%
Dividend Yield--4.37%2.07%1.11%0.76%0.29%0.39%0.76%0.74%0.00%23.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,812.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,838.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,973.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,762.511,101.57660.94
Cash Retained (M)4,973.684,973.684,973.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,762.51-1,101.57-660.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,211.173,872.114,312.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,244.183,244.183,244.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.991.191.33
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.991.191.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.172.382.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$304.02$506.27$540.23
Upside / Downside1,232.82%2,119.53%2,268.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,812.579,385.399,995.4410,645.1411,337.0812,073.9912,436.21
Payout Ratio43.56%52.85%62.14%71.42%80.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,838.894,960.116,210.867,603.259,150.4210,866.5911,503.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,624.324,668.154,711.99
Year 2 PV (M)5,398.415,501.235,605.03
Year 3 PV (M)6,161.276,338.146,518.36
Year 4 PV (M)6,913.047,178.907,452.35
Year 5 PV (M)7,653.838,023.518,407.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)248,989.25261,015.53273,502.07
Equity Value (M)279,740.12292,725.46306,197.14
Shares Outstanding (M)3,244.183,244.183,244.18
Fair Value$86.23$90.23$94.38
Upside / Downside278.03%295.58%313.78%

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