Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tomson Group Limited (0258.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.12 - $2.88$2.51
Multi-Stage$10.47 - $11.67$11.06
Blended Fair Value$6.78
Current Price$2.83
Upside139.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-38.54%-5.27%0.010.020.050.050.100.170.090.090.040.02
YoY Growth---17.58%-65.17%0.00%-50.00%-38.89%90.89%0.78%95.79%172.66%-35.40%
Dividend Yield--0.50%1.11%3.29%2.45%5.34%8.65%3.98%2.58%1.73%0.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)982.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)906.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)196.46122.7873.67
Cash Retained (M)906.76906.76906.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-196.46-122.78-73.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)710.30783.97833.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,114.272,114.272,114.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.370.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.370.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate5.04%5.04%5.04%
Growth Rate-10.61%-9.61%-8.61%
Fair Value$2.12$2.51$2.88
Upside / Downside-24.95%-11.33%1.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)982.28887.89802.58725.46655.76592.75610.53
Payout Ratio7.69%24.15%40.61%57.08%73.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.52214.43325.95414.06482.23533.47564.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.04%5.04%5.04%
Growth Rate-10.61%-9.61%-8.61%
Year 1 PV (M)201.89204.15206.41
Year 2 PV (M)288.95295.45302.02
Year 3 PV (M)345.59357.32369.31
Year 4 PV (M)378.95396.20414.02
Year 5 PV (M)394.71417.29440.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,531.1621,705.5222,933.03
Equity Value (M)22,141.2623,375.9424,665.69
Shares Outstanding (M)2,114.272,114.272,114.27
Fair Value$10.47$11.06$11.67
Upside / Downside270.05%290.68%312.24%

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