Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $109.54 - $542.69 | $195.44 |
| Multi-Stage | $93.43 - $102.42 | $97.84 |
| Blended Fair Value | $146.64 | |
| Current Price | $14.30 | |
| Upside | 925.45% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 13.34% | 5.66% | 0.73 | 0.30 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.18 | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.85 | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 145.59% | 32.62% | -21.19% | 60.92% | -54.73% | -9.05% | -49.25% | 60.10% | -0.54% | 26.13% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.29% | 2.80% | 1.97% | 2.01% | 1.87% | 2.97% | 3.05% | 4.09% | 2.75% | 2.16% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 14,476.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 4,313.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 10,163.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 2,895.20 | 1,809.50 | 1,085.70 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 10,163.00 | 10,163.00 | 10,163.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -2,895.20 | -1,809.50 | -1,085.70 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 7,267.80 | 8,353.50 | 9,077.30 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 4,184.99 | 4,184.99 | 4,184.99 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.74 | 2.00 | 2.17 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.74 | 2.00 | 2.17 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.77 | 3.03 | 3.20 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.51% | 6.51% | 6.51% |
| Growth Rate | 3.88% | 4.88% | 5.88% |
| Fair Value | $109.54 | $195.44 | $542.69 |
| Upside / Downside | 666.03% | 1,266.70% | 3,695.02% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 14,476.00 | 15,182.87 | 15,924.26 | 16,701.86 | 17,517.42 | 18,372.81 | 18,923.99 |
| Payout Ratio | 29.79% | 41.84% | 53.88% | 65.92% | 77.96% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 4,313.00 | 6,351.80 | 8,579.43 | 11,009.47 | 13,656.38 | 16,535.53 | 17,504.69 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.51% | 6.51% | 6.51% |
| Growth Rate | 3.88% | 4.88% | 5.88% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 5,906.86 | 5,963.72 | 6,020.58 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 7,419.56 | 7,563.09 | 7,708.00 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 8,854.13 | 9,112.30 | 9,375.43 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 10,213.51 | 10,612.49 | 11,023.05 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 11,500.51 | 12,064.81 | 12,651.03 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 347,116.92 | 364,148.78 | 381,842.74 |
| Equity Value (M) | 391,011.50 | 409,465.20 | 428,620.84 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 4,184.99 | 4,184.99 | 4,184.99 |
| Fair Value | $93.43 | $97.84 | $102.42 |
| Upside / Downside | 553.37% | 584.21% | 616.21% |
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