Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shinhung Co., Ltd (004080.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10,701.62 - $26,100.55$15,934.34
Multi-Stage$7,804.05 - $8,508.68$8,150.05
Blended Fair Value$12,042.19
Current Price$13,900.00
Upside-13.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.86%8.12%267.96262.32241.68204.34123.22122.95123.50123.87123.30123.77
YoY Growth--2.15%8.54%18.27%65.84%0.22%-0.45%-0.30%0.47%-0.38%0.79%
Dividend Yield--1.82%1.82%1.65%1.22%1.03%1.34%1.24%1.11%1.13%1.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,573.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,568.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,005.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)914.65571.66342.99
Cash Retained (M)2,005.262,005.262,005.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-914.65-571.66-342.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,090.611,433.601,662.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9.329.329.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share116.99153.78178.31
LTM Dividend per Share275.47275.47275.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share116.99153.78178.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend392.46429.25453.78
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10,701.62$15,934.34$26,100.55
Upside / Downside-23.01%14.64%87.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,573.264,870.535,187.115,524.275,883.356,265.776,453.74
Payout Ratio56.15%62.92%69.69%76.46%83.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,568.013,064.643,614.984,223.924,896.745,639.195,969.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,775.802,802.112,828.42
Year 2 PV (M)2,965.673,022.163,079.18
Year 3 PV (M)3,138.643,228.743,320.54
Year 4 PV (M)3,295.663,422.403,552.76
Year 5 PV (M)3,437.643,603.683,776.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,138.2859,898.0862,763.50
Equity Value (M)72,751.6875,977.1679,320.48
Shares Outstanding (M)9.329.329.32
Fair Value$7,804.05$8,150.05$8,508.68
Upside / Downside-43.86%-41.37%-38.79%

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