Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $25.95 - $39.33 | $32.24 |
| Multi-Stage | $53.54 - $58.90 | $56.17 |
| Blended Fair Value | $44.20 | |
| Current Price | $12.10 | |
| Upside | 265.33% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 16.29% | 5.85% | 0.66 | 0.52 | 0.76 | 0.64 | 0.51 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.94 | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 27.09% | -31.08% | 18.51% | 24.15% | 65.01% | -1.08% | -66.65% | 234.45% | -8.69% | -17.56% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 6.71% | 5.48% | 7.99% | 5.69% | 3.10% | 1.79% | 1.26% | 2.78% | 0.95% | 1.07% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 7,902.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 3,453.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 4,449.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,580.40 | 987.75 | 592.65 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 4,449.00 | 4,449.00 | 4,449.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,580.40 | -987.75 | -592.65 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 2,868.60 | 3,461.25 | 3,856.35 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,643.52 | 2,643.52 | 2,643.52 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.09 | 1.31 | 1.46 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.31 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.09 | 1.31 | 1.46 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.39 | 2.62 | 2.77 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $25.95 | $32.24 | $39.33 |
| Upside / Downside | 114.46% | 166.46% | 225.00% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 7,902.00 | 7,822.98 | 7,744.75 | 7,667.30 | 7,590.63 | 7,514.72 | 7,740.17 |
| Payout Ratio | 43.70% | 52.96% | 62.22% | 71.48% | 80.74% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 3,453.00 | 4,142.91 | 4,818.68 | 5,480.52 | 6,128.64 | 6,763.25 | 7,159.65 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 3,831.66 | 3,870.75 | 3,909.85 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 4,121.82 | 4,206.37 | 4,291.78 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 4,335.75 | 4,469.83 | 4,606.65 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 4,484.22 | 4,670.07 | 4,861.64 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 4,576.77 | 4,815.09 | 5,063.24 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 120,189.32 | 126,447.86 | 132,964.44 |
| Equity Value (M) | 141,539.53 | 148,479.98 | 155,697.60 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,643.52 | 2,643.52 | 2,643.52 |
| Fair Value | $53.54 | $56.17 | $58.90 |
| Upside / Downside | 342.50% | 364.19% | 386.76% |
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