Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Smart Control Co., Ltd. (001266.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.00 - $4.33$3.65
Multi-Stage$5.33 - $5.83$5.58
Blended Fair Value$4.61
Current Price$28.66
Upside-83.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS7.00%0.00%0.240.220.440.000.510.170.030.000.000.00
YoY Growth--12.79%-51.22%0.00%-100.00%190.30%452.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.04%0.82%1.55%0.00%1.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.245.153.09
Cash Retained (M)6.416.416.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.24-5.15-3.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.841.263.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)99.2499.2499.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.010.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.010.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.00$3.65$4.33
Upside / Downside-89.54%-87.27%-84.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41.2240.8140.4040.0039.6039.2040.38
Payout Ratio84.46%85.56%86.67%87.78%88.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.8134.9235.0235.1135.2035.2837.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)31.7532.0832.40
Year 2 PV (M)28.9529.5530.15
Year 3 PV (M)26.4027.2128.05
Year 4 PV (M)24.0625.0626.09
Year 5 PV (M)21.9323.0724.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)395.99416.61438.08
Equity Value (M)529.09553.59579.03
Shares Outstanding (M)99.2499.2499.24
Fair Value$5.33$5.58$5.83
Upside / Downside-81.40%-80.54%-79.64%

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