Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Woodward, Inc. (WWD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$166.06 - $431.36$252.28
Multi-Stage$113.07 - $123.60$118.24
Blended Fair Value$185.26
Current Price$252.71
Upside-26.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.52%10.18%1.060.950.830.730.590.610.640.550.480.43
YoY Growth--11.48%14.23%13.45%24.80%-4.31%-3.59%14.89%14.32%11.80%7.95%
Dividend Yield--0.42%0.57%0.61%0.76%0.54%0.50%0.54%0.75%0.63%0.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)442.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)377.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)88.4255.2633.16
Cash Retained (M)377.14377.14377.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-88.42-55.26-33.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)288.71321.87343.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)61.3961.3961.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.705.245.60
LTM Dividend per Share1.061.061.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.705.245.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.766.306.66
WACC / Discount Rate9.16%9.16%9.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$166.06$252.28$431.36
Upside / Downside-34.29%-0.17%70.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)442.11470.85501.45534.05568.76605.73623.90
Payout Ratio14.70%29.76%44.82%59.88%74.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.98140.11224.74319.78426.23545.16577.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.16%9.16%9.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)127.15128.35129.56
Year 2 PV (M)185.08188.61192.16
Year 3 PV (M)238.98245.84252.84
Year 4 PV (M)289.07300.18311.62
Year 5 PV (M)335.52351.73368.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,766.006,044.506,333.65
Equity Value (M)6,941.807,259.217,588.38
Shares Outstanding (M)61.3961.3961.39
Fair Value$113.07$118.24$123.60
Upside / Downside-55.26%-53.21%-51.09%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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