Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $227.36 - $603.13 | $347.66 |
| Multi-Stage | $154.78 - $169.16 | $161.84 |
| Blended Fair Value | $254.75 | |
| Current Price | $276.36 | |
| Upside | -7.82% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 12.07% | 10.47% | 1.66 | 1.39 | 1.18 | 1.02 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 19.35% | 17.72% | 15.16% | 9.24% | 0.00% | 10.95% | 9.27% | 5.71% | 6.06% | 12.68% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.81% | 0.66% | 0.73% | 0.72% | 0.79% | 1.15% | 1.03% | 1.03% | 1.20% | 1.26% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 324.70 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 63.80 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 260.90 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 64.94 | 40.59 | 24.35 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 260.90 | 260.90 | 260.90 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -64.94 | -40.59 | -24.35 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 195.96 | 220.31 | 236.55 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 33.50 | 33.50 | 33.50 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 5.85 | 6.58 | 7.06 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 5.85 | 6.58 | 7.06 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 7.75 | 8.48 | 8.97 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $227.36 | $347.66 | $603.13 |
| Upside / Downside | -17.73% | 25.80% | 118.24% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 324.70 | 345.81 | 368.28 | 392.22 | 417.72 | 444.87 | 458.21 |
| Payout Ratio | 19.65% | 33.72% | 47.79% | 61.86% | 75.93% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 63.80 | 116.60 | 176.00 | 242.63 | 317.17 | 400.38 | 423.85 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 105.88 | 106.88 | 107.88 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 145.11 | 147.87 | 150.66 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 181.63 | 186.85 | 192.16 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 215.59 | 223.89 | 232.41 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 247.12 | 259.05 | 271.45 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,289.95 | 4,497.16 | 4,712.29 |
| Equity Value (M) | 5,185.28 | 5,421.69 | 5,666.85 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 33.50 | 33.50 | 33.50 |
| Fair Value | $154.78 | $161.84 | $169.16 |
| Upside / Downside | -43.99% | -41.44% | -38.79% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |