Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $12.05 - $21.55 | $16.05 |
| Multi-Stage | $12.97 - $14.16 | $13.56 |
| Blended Fair Value | $14.80 | |
| Current Price | $12.28 | |
| Upside | 20.53% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -11.64% | -0.39% | 0.47 | 0.46 | 0.44 | 0.37 | 0.49 | 0.88 | 0.87 | 0.78 | 0.62 | 0.55 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 3.75% | 3.16% | 18.83% | -23.34% | -44.76% | 1.52% | 11.05% | 26.83% | 12.14% | 11.43% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.25% | 3.74% | 4.81% | 2.81% | 5.01% | 14.19% | 7.16% | 7.51% | 4.45% | 4.37% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 44.43 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 26.80 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 17.63 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 8.89 | 5.55 | 3.33 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 17.63 | 17.63 | 17.63 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -8.89 | -5.55 | -3.33 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 8.75 | 12.08 | 14.30 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 51.86 | 51.86 | 51.86 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.17 | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.17 | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.69 | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 3.23% | 4.23% | 5.23% |
| Fair Value | $12.05 | $16.05 | $21.55 |
| Upside / Downside | -1.84% | 30.66% | 75.50% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 44.43 | 46.30 | 48.26 | 50.30 | 52.43 | 54.65 | 56.29 |
| Payout Ratio | 60.32% | 66.25% | 72.19% | 78.13% | 84.06% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 26.80 | 30.68 | 34.84 | 39.30 | 44.07 | 49.18 | 52.07 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 3.23% | 4.23% | 5.23% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 27.85 | 28.12 | 28.39 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 28.71 | 29.27 | 29.84 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 29.40 | 30.26 | 31.14 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 29.93 | 31.11 | 32.32 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 30.32 | 31.82 | 33.38 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 526.43 | 552.43 | 579.44 |
| Equity Value (M) | 672.65 | 703.01 | 734.51 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 51.86 | 51.86 | 51.86 |
| Fair Value | $12.97 | $13.56 | $14.16 |
| Upside / Downside | 5.63% | 10.39% | 15.34% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |