Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $2.76 - $4.29 | $3.47 |
| Multi-Stage | $6.63 - $7.29 | $6.95 |
| Blended Fair Value | $5.21 | |
| Current Price | $4.18 | |
| Upside | 24.68% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -3.64% | 0.00% | 0.26 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.31 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 57.82% | -27.28% | -12.87% | 0.02% | -16.95% | 49.45% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 7.36% | 4.08% | 5.82% | 6.35% | 5.81% | 7.54% | 3.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,087.58 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 965.75 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 121.83 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 217.52 | 135.95 | 81.57 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 121.83 | 121.83 | 121.83 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -217.52 | -135.95 | -81.57 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -95.68 | -14.12 | 40.26 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 3,709.14 | 3,709.14 | 3,709.14 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.03 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.03 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.23 | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $2.76 | $3.47 | $4.29 |
| Upside / Downside | -33.90% | -16.99% | 2.66% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,087.58 | 1,076.71 | 1,065.94 | 1,055.28 | 1,044.73 | 1,034.28 | 1,065.31 |
| Payout Ratio | 88.80% | 89.04% | 89.28% | 89.52% | 89.76% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 965.75 | 958.68 | 951.66 | 944.68 | 937.74 | 930.85 | 985.41 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 892.58 | 901.69 | 910.80 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 824.95 | 841.87 | 858.97 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 762.44 | 786.02 | 810.08 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 704.66 | 733.86 | 763.97 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 651.25 | 685.16 | 720.47 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 20,762.18 | 21,843.32 | 22,969.03 |
| Equity Value (M) | 24,598.06 | 25,791.92 | 27,033.31 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 3,709.14 | 3,709.14 | 3,709.14 |
| Fair Value | $6.63 | $6.95 | $7.29 |
| Upside / Downside | 58.65% | 66.35% | 74.36% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |