Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $34.62 - $51.34 | $42.61 |
| Multi-Stage | $78.98 - $86.99 | $82.91 |
| Blended Fair Value | $62.76 | |
| Current Price | $17.08 | |
| Upside | 267.43% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -8.58% | -0.99% | 1.49 | 1.07 | 1.24 | 0.64 | 0.78 | 2.33 | 2.70 | 3.10 | 3.06 | 3.70 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 39.36% | -13.79% | 93.11% | -17.97% | -66.45% | -13.53% | -12.94% | 1.22% | -17.24% | 124.91% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 10.83% | 7.33% | 9.94% | 5.02% | 7.28% | 11.60% | 9.93% | 7.68% | 7.17% | 7.16% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 189.85 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 79.75 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 110.11 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 37.97 | 23.73 | 14.24 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 110.11 | 110.11 | 110.11 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -37.97 | -23.73 | -14.24 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 72.14 | 86.38 | 95.87 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 43.46 | 43.46 | 43.46 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.66 | 1.99 | 2.21 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.83 | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.66 | 1.99 | 2.21 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.49 | 3.82 | 4.04 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.81% | 6.81% | 6.81% |
| Growth Rate | -2.99% | -1.99% | -0.99% |
| Fair Value | $34.62 | $42.61 | $51.34 |
| Upside / Downside | 102.68% | 149.44% | 200.57% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 189.85 | 186.08 | 182.39 | 178.77 | 175.22 | 171.74 | 176.89 |
| Payout Ratio | 42.00% | 51.60% | 61.20% | 70.80% | 80.40% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 79.75 | 96.02 | 111.63 | 126.57 | 140.87 | 154.56 | 163.62 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.81% | 6.81% | 6.81% |
| Growth Rate | -2.99% | -1.99% | -0.99% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 88.99 | 89.90 | 90.82 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 95.86 | 97.85 | 99.86 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 100.73 | 103.88 | 107.09 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 103.90 | 108.25 | 112.74 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 105.64 | 111.20 | 116.99 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,937.90 | 3,092.47 | 3,253.48 |
| Equity Value (M) | 3,433.03 | 3,603.56 | 3,780.98 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 43.46 | 43.46 | 43.46 |
| Fair Value | $78.98 | $82.91 | $86.99 |
| Upside / Downside | 362.44% | 385.41% | 409.31% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |