Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (WAB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$157.45 - $405.03$238.46
Multi-Stage$107.40 - $117.41$112.32
Blended Fair Value$175.39
Current Price$200.47
Upside-12.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.37%21.95%0.820.720.650.540.540.480.270.250.190.16
YoY Growth--13.82%10.81%20.65%-0.54%13.22%76.55%9.61%30.18%20.28%40.10%
Dividend Yield--0.45%0.50%0.64%0.56%0.68%0.99%0.36%0.30%0.24%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,180.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)164.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,016.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)236.00147.5088.50
Cash Retained (M)1,016.001,016.001,016.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-236.00-147.50-88.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)780.00868.50927.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)171.43171.43171.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.555.075.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.960.960.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.555.075.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.516.026.37
WACC / Discount Rate9.19%9.19%9.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$157.45$238.46$405.03
Upside / Downside-21.46%18.95%102.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,180.001,256.701,338.391,425.381,518.031,616.701,665.20
Payout Ratio13.90%29.12%44.34%59.56%74.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)164.00365.93593.43848.951,135.181,455.031,540.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.19%9.19%9.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)331.99335.14338.28
Year 2 PV (M)488.44497.74507.13
Year 3 PV (M)633.93652.13670.67
Year 4 PV (M)769.03798.61829.03
Year 5 PV (M)894.28937.47982.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,294.0916,032.8016,799.78
Equity Value (M)18,411.7519,253.8820,127.21
Shares Outstanding (M)171.43171.43171.43
Fair Value$107.40$112.32$117.41
Upside / Downside-46.42%-43.97%-41.43%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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