Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Vistra Corp. (VST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$65.96 - $144.14$94.63
Multi-Stage$48.18 - $52.60$50.35
Blended Fair Value$72.49
Current Price$195.92
Upside-63.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.65%0.00%0.900.920.890.850.780.720.000.002.920.00
YoY Growth---2.56%3.64%4.14%9.02%9.47%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.76%1.29%3.70%3.67%4.43%4.48%0.00%0.00%17.92%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,152.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)304.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)848.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)230.40144.0086.40
Cash Retained (M)848.00848.00848.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-230.40-144.00-86.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)617.60704.00761.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)339.69339.69339.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.822.072.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.822.072.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.712.973.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$65.96$94.63$144.14
Upside / Downside-66.33%-51.70%-26.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,152.001,226.881,306.631,391.561,482.011,578.341,625.69
Payout Ratio26.39%39.11%51.83%64.56%77.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)304.00479.85677.27898.331,145.261,420.511,503.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)432.76436.86440.96
Year 2 PV (M)550.87561.36571.95
Year 3 PV (M)658.97677.89697.16
Year 4 PV (M)757.67786.81816.78
Year 5 PV (M)847.54888.48930.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,117.9613,751.5614,409.41
Equity Value (M)16,365.7717,102.9617,867.26
Shares Outstanding (M)339.69339.69339.69
Fair Value$48.18$50.35$52.60
Upside / Downside-75.41%-74.30%-73.15%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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