Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $112.44 - $225.26 | $156.35 |
| Multi-Stage | $99.63 - $108.93 | $104.19 |
| Blended Fair Value | $130.27 | |
| Current Price | $251.51 | |
| Upside | -48.20% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 6.24% | 0.00% | 1.57 | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.34 | 1.25 | 1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 12.45% | 0.82% | 3.72% | 7.05% | 7.52% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.53% | 0.60% | 0.72% | 0.62% | 0.71% | 0.83% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 921.40 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 243.30 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 678.10 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 184.28 | 115.18 | 69.11 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 678.10 | 678.10 | 678.10 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -184.28 | -115.18 | -69.11 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 493.82 | 562.93 | 609.00 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 140.70 | 140.70 | 140.70 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 3.51 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.73 | 1.73 | 1.73 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 3.51 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 5.24 | 5.73 | 6.06 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 4.24% | 5.24% | 6.24% |
| Fair Value | $112.44 | $156.35 | $225.26 |
| Upside / Downside | -55.29% | -37.83% | -10.44% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 921.40 | 969.69 | 1,020.51 | 1,074.00 | 1,130.29 | 1,189.53 | 1,225.22 |
| Payout Ratio | 26.41% | 39.12% | 51.84% | 64.56% | 77.28% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 243.30 | 379.39 | 529.07 | 693.40 | 873.50 | 1,070.58 | 1,133.33 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 4.24% | 5.24% | 6.24% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 344.44 | 347.75 | 351.05 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 436.10 | 444.51 | 452.99 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 518.91 | 533.99 | 549.36 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 593.49 | 616.59 | 640.36 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 660.39 | 692.68 | 726.22 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 11,464.41 | 12,024.96 | 12,607.22 |
| Equity Value (M) | 14,017.74 | 14,660.47 | 15,327.21 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 140.70 | 140.70 | 140.70 |
| Fair Value | $99.63 | $104.19 | $108.93 |
| Upside / Downside | -60.39% | -58.57% | -56.69% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |