Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$119.80 - $295.86$179.10
Multi-Stage$83.93 - $91.67$87.73
Blended Fair Value$133.42
Current Price$93.49
Upside42.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.90%20.80%1.371.161.000.680.520.420.370.330.300.28
YoY Growth--18.38%15.93%46.39%31.11%24.93%11.22%12.57%10.90%7.11%35.25%
Dividend Yield--1.29%0.94%1.26%0.85%0.71%1.17%1.25%1.02%0.91%1.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)320.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)82.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)237.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.0140.0124.00
Cash Retained (M)237.49237.49237.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.01-40.01-24.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)173.48197.49213.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)58.9558.9558.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.943.353.62
LTM Dividend per Share1.401.401.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.943.353.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.344.755.02
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$119.80$179.10$295.86
Upside / Downside28.14%91.58%216.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)320.04340.84363.00386.59411.72438.49451.64
Payout Ratio25.79%38.64%51.48%64.32%77.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)82.55131.69186.86248.65317.68394.64417.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)119.32120.45121.58
Year 2 PV (M)153.42156.34159.29
Year 3 PV (M)184.99190.30195.71
Year 4 PV (M)214.16222.39230.86
Year 5 PV (M)241.06252.70264.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,034.814,229.694,432.04
Equity Value (M)4,947.765,171.885,404.27
Shares Outstanding (M)58.9558.9558.95
Fair Value$83.93$87.73$91.67
Upside / Downside-10.23%-6.16%-1.94%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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