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Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$168.91 - $511.86$268.57
Multi-Stage$113.57 - $124.00$118.69
Blended Fair Value$193.63
Current Price$166.15
Upside16.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.73%17.92%2.442.211.861.250.371.531.030.870.780.69
YoY Growth--10.65%18.56%48.39%234.78%-75.59%49.33%17.88%11.72%12.73%47.37%
Dividend Yield--1.45%1.45%1.75%1.47%0.39%3.72%1.68%1.53%1.77%1.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)436.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)176.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)260.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)87.3554.5932.76
Cash Retained (M)260.73260.73260.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-87.35-54.59-32.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)173.38206.13227.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.7066.7066.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.603.093.42
LTM Dividend per Share2.642.642.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.603.093.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.245.736.06
WACC / Discount Rate8.77%8.77%8.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$168.91$268.57$511.86
Upside / Downside1.66%61.64%208.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)436.75465.14495.38527.57561.87598.39616.34
Payout Ratio40.30%50.24%60.18%70.12%80.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)176.03233.70298.13369.94449.83538.55570.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.77%8.77%8.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)212.83214.85216.87
Year 2 PV (M)247.27251.98256.73
Year 3 PV (M)279.44287.46295.64
Year 4 PV (M)309.45321.35333.59
Year 5 PV (M)337.40353.70370.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,188.016,486.896,797.22
Equity Value (M)7,574.417,916.248,270.67
Shares Outstanding (M)66.7066.7066.70
Fair Value$113.57$118.69$124.00
Upside / Downside-31.65%-28.56%-25.37%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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