Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $3.69 - $5.31 | $4.48 |
| Multi-Stage | $6.38 - $6.98 | $6.68 |
| Blended Fair Value | $5.58 | |
| Current Price | $10.03 | |
| Upside | -44.39% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.40 | 0.45 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.28 | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -10.02% | -7.11% | -8.09% | -2.08% | 0.00% | -100.00% | 89.44% | -3.82% | -7.75% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.00% | 4.51% | 4.01% | 3.52% | 5.86% | 0.00% | 4.36% | 2.99% | 3.61% | 3.55% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 71.40 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 54.84 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 16.57 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 14.28 | 8.93 | 5.36 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 16.57 | 16.57 | 16.57 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -14.28 | -8.93 | -5.36 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 2.28 | 7.64 | 11.21 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 136.77 | 136.77 | 136.77 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $3.69 | $4.48 | $5.31 |
| Upside / Downside | -63.23% | -55.35% | -47.08% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 71.40 | 70.69 | 69.98 | 69.28 | 68.59 | 67.90 | 69.94 |
| Payout Ratio | 76.80% | 79.44% | 82.08% | 84.72% | 87.36% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 54.84 | 56.15 | 57.44 | 58.70 | 59.92 | 61.11 | 64.69 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 50.95 | 51.47 | 51.99 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 47.29 | 48.26 | 49.24 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 43.85 | 45.20 | 46.59 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 40.61 | 42.30 | 44.03 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 37.58 | 39.54 | 41.58 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 652.46 | 686.43 | 721.81 |
| Equity Value (M) | 872.74 | 913.20 | 955.23 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 136.77 | 136.77 | 136.77 |
| Fair Value | $6.38 | $6.68 | $6.98 |
| Upside / Downside | -36.38% | -33.43% | -30.37% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |