Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $177.32 - $470.39 | $271.15 |
| Multi-Stage | $124.52 - $135.87 | $130.09 |
| Blended Fair Value | $200.62 | |
| Current Price | $174.08 | |
| Upside | 15.25% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -8.60% | 18.47% | 2.82 | 1.96 | 1.74 | 0.86 | 1.81 | 4.42 | 4.16 | 3.86 | 2.59 | 0.82 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 44.04% | 12.54% | 102.51% | -52.64% | -58.97% | 6.22% | 7.72% | 49.00% | 216.15% | 58.41% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.41% | 1.74% | 2.38% | 1.14% | 5.71% | 63.95% | 9.82% | 8.78% | 4.33% | 2.75% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,650.40 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 767.40 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 883.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 330.08 | 206.30 | 123.78 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 883.00 | 883.00 | 883.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -330.08 | -206.30 | -123.78 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 552.92 | 676.70 | 759.22 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 218.33 | 218.33 | 218.33 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.53 | 3.10 | 3.48 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.51 | 3.51 | 3.51 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.53 | 3.10 | 3.48 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 6.05 | 6.61 | 6.99 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $177.32 | $271.15 | $470.39 |
| Upside / Downside | 1.86% | 55.76% | 170.22% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,650.40 | 1,757.68 | 1,871.92 | 1,993.60 | 2,123.18 | 2,261.19 | 2,329.03 |
| Payout Ratio | 46.50% | 55.20% | 63.90% | 72.60% | 81.30% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 767.40 | 970.21 | 1,196.14 | 1,447.34 | 1,726.14 | 2,035.07 | 2,154.35 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 880.95 | 889.30 | 897.65 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 986.17 | 1,004.96 | 1,023.92 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,083.50 | 1,114.60 | 1,146.29 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,173.33 | 1,218.45 | 1,264.86 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,256.06 | 1,316.73 | 1,379.72 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 21,805.15 | 22,858.35 | 23,951.85 |
| Equity Value (M) | 27,185.16 | 28,402.38 | 29,664.29 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 218.33 | 218.33 | 218.33 |
| Fair Value | $124.52 | $130.09 | $135.87 |
| Upside / Downside | -28.47% | -25.27% | -21.95% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |