Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Saha-Union Public Company Limited (SUC.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.59 - $61.79$51.91
Multi-Stage$113.67 - $125.52$119.47
Blended Fair Value$85.69
Current Price$29.50
Upside190.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.54%-5.30%1.501.501.501.751.881.992.512.772.092.34
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-14.48%-6.73%-5.71%-20.39%-9.64%32.78%-10.75%-9.49%
Dividend Yield--4.88%4.65%5.13%5.52%5.22%5.95%5.11%6.16%5.32%6.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,738.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)465.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,273.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)347.78217.36130.42
Cash Retained (M)1,273.621,273.621,273.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-347.78-217.36-130.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)925.841,056.261,143.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)290.79290.79290.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.183.633.93
LTM Dividend per Share1.601.601.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.183.633.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.785.235.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-4.39%-3.39%-2.39%
Fair Value$42.59$51.91$61.79
Upside / Downside44.39%75.96%109.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,738.881,679.871,622.861,567.791,514.591,463.191,507.09
Payout Ratio26.76%39.41%52.05%64.70%77.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)465.26661.95844.761,014.401,171.551,316.871,394.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-4.39%-3.39%-2.39%
Year 1 PV (M)616.02622.46628.90
Year 2 PV (M)731.59746.97762.51
Year 3 PV (M)817.53843.46869.92
Year 4 PV (M)878.67916.01954.53
Year 5 PV (M)919.12968.201,019.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,090.9130,644.4632,263.68
Equity Value (M)33,053.8434,741.5636,498.91
Shares Outstanding (M)290.79290.79290.79
Fair Value$113.67$119.47$125.52
Upside / Downside285.32%305.00%325.49%

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