Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $5.93 - $8.55 | $7.20 |
| Multi-Stage | $12.67 - $13.94 | $13.29 |
| Blended Fair Value | $10.25 | |
| Current Price | $4.98 | |
| Upside | 105.80% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -7.39% | -0.95% | 0.50 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.73 | 0.74 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 178.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -100.00% | -84.54% | -0.87% | 75.11% | 0.00% | -100.00% | -9.31% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 9.23% | 3.83% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.41% | 10.16% | 6.47% | 3.73% | 0.00% | 4.52% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 235.77 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 124.71 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 111.06 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 47.15 | 29.47 | 17.68 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 111.06 | 111.06 | 111.06 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -47.15 | -29.47 | -17.68 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 63.90 | 81.59 | 93.38 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 279.06 | 279.06 | 279.06 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.23 | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.23 | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.68 | 0.74 | 0.78 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.51% | 7.51% | 7.51% |
| Growth Rate | -3.49% | -2.49% | -1.49% |
| Fair Value | $5.93 | $7.20 | $8.55 |
| Upside / Downside | 19.01% | 44.67% | 71.66% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 235.77 | 229.89 | 224.16 | 218.57 | 213.12 | 207.80 | 214.04 |
| Payout Ratio | 52.90% | 60.32% | 67.74% | 75.16% | 82.58% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 124.71 | 138.66 | 151.84 | 164.27 | 175.99 | 187.02 | 197.99 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.51% | 7.51% | 7.51% |
| Growth Rate | -3.49% | -2.49% | -1.49% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 127.65 | 128.98 | 130.30 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 128.68 | 131.36 | 134.07 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 128.16 | 132.19 | 136.30 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 126.40 | 131.73 | 137.21 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 123.66 | 130.20 | 137.02 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,901.62 | 3,055.10 | 3,215.01 |
| Equity Value (M) | 3,536.19 | 3,709.56 | 3,889.91 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 279.06 | 279.06 | 279.06 |
| Fair Value | $12.67 | $13.29 | $13.94 |
| Upside / Downside | 154.45% | 166.93% | 179.90% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |