Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $25.03 - $39.05 | $31.50 |
| Multi-Stage | $60.92 - $66.99 | $63.90 |
| Blended Fair Value | $47.70 | |
| Current Price | $40.58 | |
| Upside | 17.54% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 20.24% | 8.91% | 1.08 | 1.00 | 1.03 | 0.71 | 0.44 | 0.43 | 0.64 | 0.54 | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 8.07% | -3.19% | 44.66% | 60.63% | 3.39% | -33.20% | 18.27% | 20.05% | -0.75% | -0.75% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.66% | 2.81% | 3.13% | 2.76% | 1.36% | 2.19% | 2.83% | 2.49% | 2.56% | 2.58% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 863.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 683.10 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 179.90 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 172.60 | 107.88 | 64.73 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 179.90 | 179.90 | 179.90 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -172.60 | -107.88 | -64.73 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 7.30 | 72.03 | 115.18 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 329.35 | 329.35 | 329.35 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.02 | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.07 | 2.07 | 2.07 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.02 | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.10 | 2.29 | 2.42 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.21% | 6.21% | 6.21% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $25.03 | $31.50 | $39.05 |
| Upside / Downside | -38.31% | -22.38% | -3.76% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 863.00 | 854.37 | 845.83 | 837.37 | 828.99 | 820.70 | 845.33 |
| Payout Ratio | 79.15% | 81.32% | 83.49% | 85.66% | 87.83% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 683.10 | 694.80 | 706.20 | 717.30 | 728.11 | 738.63 | 781.93 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.21% | 6.21% | 6.21% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 647.59 | 654.20 | 660.81 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 613.49 | 626.08 | 638.79 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 580.80 | 598.76 | 617.08 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 549.49 | 572.26 | 595.74 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 519.55 | 546.61 | 574.78 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 17,153.25 | 18,046.46 | 18,976.49 |
| Equity Value (M) | 20,064.17 | 21,044.36 | 22,063.69 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 329.35 | 329.35 | 329.35 |
| Fair Value | $60.92 | $63.90 | $66.99 |
| Upside / Downside | 50.12% | 57.46% | 65.09% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |