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Definitive Analysis

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Sanofi India Limited (SANOFI.BO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,391.87 - $2,178.97$1,753.93
Multi-Stage$3,286.33 - $3,612.43$3,446.20
Blended Fair Value$2,600.06
Current Price$4,650.00
Upside-44.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.99%12.24%167.00377.03181.01125.00349.0379.5571.0468.0478.2563.67
YoY Growth---55.71%108.30%44.80%-64.19%338.76%11.98%4.40%-13.04%22.89%20.94%
Dividend Yield--2.86%8.02%5.44%2.87%7.63%2.19%2.10%2.29%2.87%2.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,313.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,695.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)618.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)662.60414.13248.48
Cash Retained (M)618.00618.00618.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-662.60-414.13-248.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)-44.60203.88369.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.0323.0323.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.948.8516.05
LTM Dividend per Share117.02117.02117.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.948.8516.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend115.09125.87133.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate-1.82%-0.82%0.18%
Fair Value$1,391.87$1,753.93$2,178.97
Upside / Downside-70.07%-62.28%-53.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,313.003,285.813,258.843,232.093,205.563,179.253,274.62
Payout Ratio81.35%83.08%84.81%86.54%88.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,695.002,729.752,763.742,797.002,829.522,861.323,029.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate-1.82%-0.82%0.18%
Year 1 PV (M)2,542.152,568.042,593.93
Year 2 PV (M)2,396.922,446.002,495.57
Year 3 PV (M)2,259.052,328.782,399.94
Year 4 PV (M)2,128.262,216.302,307.05
Year 5 PV (M)2,004.272,108.442,216.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)64,353.0167,697.7871,180.21
Equity Value (M)75,683.6579,365.3483,193.59
Shares Outstanding (M)23.0323.0323.03
Fair Value$3,286.33$3,446.20$3,612.43
Upside / Downside-29.33%-25.89%-22.31%

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