Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $5.74 - $7.45 | $6.64 |
| Multi-Stage | $17.95 - $19.99 | $18.95 |
| Blended Fair Value | $12.80 | |
| Current Price | $8.31 | |
| Upside | 53.97% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -13.75% | -15.48% | 0.48 | 0.54 | 0.58 | 0.63 | 0.78 | 1.01 | 1.17 | 1.33 | 1.80 | 2.56 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -11.07% | -7.02% | -8.06% | -18.97% | -22.54% | -13.92% | -12.21% | -25.99% | -29.66% | -0.87% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.73% | 7.27% | 7.91% | 7.29% | 10.44% | 12.15% | 15.85% | 13.80% | 18.36% | 32.21% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 16.15 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 6.96 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 9.19 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 3.23 | 2.02 | 1.21 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 9.19 | 9.19 | 9.19 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -3.23 | -2.02 | -1.21 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 5.96 | 7.17 | 7.98 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 8.41 | 8.41 | 8.41 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.71 | 0.85 | 0.95 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.71 | 0.85 | 0.95 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.54 | 1.68 | 1.78 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.82% | 6.82% | 6.82% |
| Growth Rate | -15.75% | -14.75% | -13.75% |
| Fair Value | $5.74 | $6.64 | $7.45 |
| Upside / Downside | -30.96% | -20.06% | -10.34% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 16.15 | 13.77 | 11.74 | 10.01 | 8.53 | 7.27 | 7.49 |
| Payout Ratio | 43.10% | 52.48% | 61.86% | 71.24% | 80.62% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 6.96 | 7.23 | 7.26 | 7.13 | 6.88 | 6.54 | 6.93 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.82% | 6.82% | 6.82% |
| Growth Rate | -15.75% | -14.75% | -13.75% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 6.69 | 6.77 | 6.85 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 6.22 | 6.36 | 6.51 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 5.65 | 5.85 | 6.06 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 5.04 | 5.28 | 5.53 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 4.44 | 4.71 | 4.99 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 122.84 | 130.31 | 138.13 |
| Equity Value (M) | 150.86 | 159.27 | 168.07 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 8.41 | 8.41 | 8.41 |
| Fair Value | $17.95 | $18.95 | $19.99 |
| Upside / Downside | 115.96% | 128.00% | 140.59% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |