Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $16.25 - $25.82 | $20.61 |
| Multi-Stage | $21.83 - $23.85 | $22.82 |
| Blended Fair Value | $21.71 | |
| Current Price | $30.93 | |
| Upside | -29.80% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -0.23% | 1.39% | 1.10 | 1.14 | 1.13 | 0.84 | 1.13 | 1.12 | 1.11 | 1.08 | 1.02 | 0.92 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -2.97% | 0.23% | 34.49% | -25.15% | 0.98% | 0.27% | 3.43% | 5.86% | 10.81% | -4.55% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.19% | 3.49% | 3.65% | 2.52% | 4.50% | 5.69% | 4.68% | 2.55% | 2.06% | 1.90% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 138.78 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 92.48 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 46.30 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 27.76 | 17.35 | 10.41 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 46.30 | 46.30 | 46.30 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -27.76 | -17.35 | -10.41 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 18.54 | 28.95 | 35.89 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 89.17 | 89.17 | 89.17 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.21 | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.21 | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.25 | 1.36 | 1.44 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 1.34% | 2.34% | 3.34% |
| Fair Value | $16.25 | $20.61 | $25.82 |
| Upside / Downside | -47.45% | -33.37% | -16.54% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 138.78 | 142.02 | 145.33 | 148.73 | 152.20 | 155.75 | 160.43 |
| Payout Ratio | 66.64% | 71.31% | 75.98% | 80.66% | 85.33% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 92.48 | 101.27 | 110.43 | 119.96 | 129.87 | 140.18 | 148.39 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 1.34% | 2.34% | 3.34% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 91.92 | 92.83 | 93.73 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 90.97 | 92.78 | 94.60 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 89.70 | 92.38 | 95.11 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 88.14 | 91.67 | 95.31 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 86.35 | 90.70 | 95.22 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,499.07 | 1,574.51 | 1,652.96 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,946.15 | 2,034.86 | 2,126.93 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 89.17 | 89.17 | 89.17 |
| Fair Value | $21.83 | $22.82 | $23.85 |
| Upside / Downside | -29.43% | -26.22% | -22.88% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |