Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SilverSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.71 - $31.81$25.16
Multi-Stage$16.23 - $17.68$16.94
Blended Fair Value$21.05
Current Price$28.40
Upside-25.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.74%6.74%0.400.360.260.200.130.080.060.040.020.11
YoY Growth--11.50%37.70%32.45%54.68%57.59%37.81%38.98%101.34%-81.76%-44.95%
Dividend Yield--1.54%2.33%1.42%0.71%0.42%0.56%0.45%0.26%0.12%1.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)634.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)152.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)482.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)126.8279.2647.56
Cash Retained (M)482.00482.00482.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-126.82-79.26-47.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)355.18402.74434.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)366.65366.65366.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.971.101.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.971.101.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.381.511.60
WACC / Discount Rate12.91%12.91%12.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.71$25.16$31.81
Upside / Downside-30.61%-11.42%12.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)634.10675.32719.21765.96815.75868.77894.84
Payout Ratio23.99%37.19%50.39%63.59%76.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)152.10251.15362.43487.11626.47781.89827.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.91%12.91%12.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)220.35222.44224.53
Year 2 PV (M)278.99284.30289.67
Year 3 PV (M)328.99338.43348.06
Year 4 PV (M)371.23385.50400.19
Year 5 PV (M)406.51426.15446.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,344.074,553.894,771.74
Equity Value (M)5,950.146,210.716,480.71
Shares Outstanding (M)366.65366.65366.65
Fair Value$16.23$16.94$17.68
Upside / Downside-42.86%-40.36%-37.76%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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