Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.14 - $18.86$15.24
Multi-Stage$28.25 - $31.10$29.65
Blended Fair Value$22.45
Current Price$14.42
Upside55.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.580.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)198.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)91.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)107.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.7624.8514.91
Cash Retained (M)107.30107.30107.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.76-24.85-14.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)67.5482.4592.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)154.55154.55154.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.530.60
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.530.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.031.131.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.14$15.24$18.86
Upside / Downside-15.84%5.71%30.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)198.80196.81194.84192.90190.97189.06194.73
Payout Ratio46.03%54.82%63.62%72.41%81.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)91.50107.89123.95139.68155.07170.15180.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)100.47101.49102.52
Year 2 PV (M)107.47109.67111.90
Year 3 PV (M)112.77116.25119.81
Year 4 PV (M)116.58121.41126.39
Year 5 PV (M)119.10125.31131.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,809.524,007.894,214.44
Equity Value (M)4,365.904,582.024,806.82
Shares Outstanding (M)154.55154.55154.55
Fair Value$28.25$29.65$31.10
Upside / Downside95.90%105.60%115.69%

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