Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Moog Inc. (MOG-A)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$119.02 - $230.35$163.38
Multi-Stage$107.77 - $117.97$112.78
Blended Fair Value$138.08
Current Price$204.64
Upside-32.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.64%0.00%1.131.101.061.031.000.781.080.560.000.00
YoY Growth--2.69%4.11%3.35%2.69%27.35%-27.68%94.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.55%0.56%0.73%1.17%1.23%0.99%1.27%0.72%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)235.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)207.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47.0129.3817.63
Cash Retained (M)207.78207.78207.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-47.01-29.38-17.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)160.78178.40190.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.1332.1332.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.005.555.92
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.005.555.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.856.406.77
WACC / Discount Rate9.12%9.12%9.12%
Growth Rate4.00%5.00%6.00%
Fair Value$119.02$163.38$230.35
Upside / Downside-41.84%-20.16%12.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)235.03246.79259.13272.09285.70300.00309.00
Payout Ratio11.59%27.27%42.96%58.64%74.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.2567.31111.31159.55212.33270.00285.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.12%9.12%9.12%
Growth Rate4.00%5.00%6.00%
Year 1 PV (M)61.1061.6962.27
Year 2 PV (M)91.7293.4995.28
Year 3 PV (M)119.33122.81126.35
Year 4 PV (M)144.16149.78155.57
Year 5 PV (M)166.39174.55183.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,879.963,021.103,167.73
Equity Value (M)3,462.663,623.423,790.22
Shares Outstanding (M)32.1332.1332.13
Fair Value$107.77$112.78$117.97
Upside / Downside-47.33%-44.89%-42.35%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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