Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.21 - $4.26$3.75
Multi-Stage$8.11 - $8.96$8.52
Blended Fair Value$6.14
Current Price$17.81
Upside-65.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.47%-2.80%0.500.790.860.840.810.780.750.740.720.70
YoY Growth---36.19%-8.82%3.25%2.97%3.84%3.68%2.55%2.43%3.03%4.48%
Dividend Yield--2.97%5.58%7.45%8.26%6.76%9.57%7.63%6.87%6.90%9.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)169.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)105.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)63.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.8621.1612.70
Cash Retained (M)63.6463.6463.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.86-21.16-12.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.7842.4850.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)205.03205.03205.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.210.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.210.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate7.95%7.95%7.95%
Growth Rate-10.47%-9.47%-8.47%
Fair Value$3.21$3.75$4.26
Upside / Downside-81.98%-78.92%-76.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)169.30153.27138.75125.61113.71102.94106.03
Payout Ratio62.41%67.93%73.45%78.96%84.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)105.66104.11101.9199.1896.0692.6498.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.95%7.95%7.95%
Growth Rate-10.47%-9.47%-8.47%
Year 1 PV (M)95.3896.4497.51
Year 2 PV (M)85.5287.4589.39
Year 3 PV (M)76.2678.8481.48
Year 4 PV (M)67.6670.7473.91
Year 5 PV (M)59.7863.1966.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,277.991,350.981,427.26
Equity Value (M)1,662.591,747.631,836.31
Shares Outstanding (M)205.03205.03205.03
Fair Value$8.11$8.52$8.96
Upside / Downside-54.47%-52.14%-49.71%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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