Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Healthcare Special Opportunities Fund (MDS-UN.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.14 - $2.75$2.46
Multi-Stage$6.49 - $7.22$6.85
Blended Fair Value$4.66
Current Price$11.55
Upside-59.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.42%0.00%0.260.260.390.490.800.610.430.270.000.00
YoY Growth--1.47%-34.02%-19.20%-39.71%32.70%39.44%61.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.02%2.18%3.41%3.75%5.87%4.85%4.01%2.61%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.230.150.09
Cash Retained (M)0.410.410.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.23-0.15-0.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.170.260.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.461.461.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.180.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.180.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-17.42%-16.42%-15.42%
Fair Value$2.14$2.46$2.75
Upside / Downside-81.51%-78.67%-76.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1.160.970.810.680.570.470.49
Payout Ratio64.99%70.00%75.00%80.00%85.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.750.680.610.540.480.430.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-17.42%-16.42%-15.42%
Year 1 PV (M)0.630.630.64
Year 2 PV (M)0.520.530.54
Year 3 PV (M)0.430.440.46
Year 4 PV (M)0.350.370.38
Year 5 PV (M)0.280.300.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)7.297.748.22
Equity Value (M)9.4910.0210.56
Shares Outstanding (M)1.461.461.46
Fair Value$6.49$6.85$7.22
Upside / Downside-43.81%-40.71%-37.48%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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