Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $111.41 - $295.53 | $170.35 |
| Multi-Stage | $79.39 - $86.57 | $82.92 |
| Blended Fair Value | $126.64 | |
| Current Price | $259.82 | |
| Upside | -51.26% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 8.46% | 12.22% | 2.68 | 2.49 | 2.24 | 1.99 | 1.87 | 1.79 | 1.60 | 1.27 | 1.12 | 0.97 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 7.88% | 11.18% | 12.43% | 6.17% | 4.81% | 11.74% | 25.88% | 14.01% | 14.48% | 14.95% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.34% | 1.03% | 0.83% | 0.80% | 0.70% | 1.43% | 0.88% | 0.61% | 0.70% | 0.79% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 118.65 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 70.69 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 47.96 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 23.73 | 14.83 | 8.90 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 47.96 | 47.96 | 47.96 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -23.73 | -14.83 | -8.90 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 24.23 | 33.13 | 39.07 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 24.98 | 24.98 | 24.98 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.97 | 1.33 | 1.56 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.83 | 2.83 | 2.83 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.97 | 1.33 | 1.56 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.80 | 4.16 | 4.39 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $111.41 | $170.35 | $295.53 |
| Upside / Downside | -57.12% | -34.43% | 13.75% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 118.65 | 126.36 | 134.57 | 143.32 | 152.64 | 162.56 | 167.44 |
| Payout Ratio | 59.57% | 65.66% | 71.74% | 77.83% | 83.91% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 70.69 | 82.97 | 96.55 | 111.55 | 128.09 | 146.30 | 154.88 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 75.34 | 76.05 | 76.76 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 79.60 | 81.12 | 82.65 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 83.51 | 85.90 | 88.35 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 87.07 | 90.41 | 93.86 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 90.30 | 94.66 | 99.19 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,567.60 | 1,643.31 | 1,721.92 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,983.40 | 2,071.46 | 2,162.73 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 24.98 | 24.98 | 24.98 |
| Fair Value | $79.39 | $82.92 | $86.57 |
| Upside / Downside | -69.44% | -68.09% | -66.68% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |