Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $14.92 - $23.31 | $18.78 |
| Multi-Stage | $19.93 - $21.83 | $20.86 |
| Blended Fair Value | $19.82 | |
| Current Price | $22.37 | |
| Upside | -11.40% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 11.75% | 20.80% | 0.50 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.26 | 0.16 | 0.28 | 0.22 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 4.20% | 9.29% | 66.95% | 64.05% | -44.13% | 26.57% | 28.57% | 16.67% | 20.00% | 66.65% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.88% | 2.63% | 2.47% | 1.15% | 0.67% | 1.49% | 1.00% | 0.78% | 0.67% | 0.56% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 602.70 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 209.60 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 393.10 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 120.54 | 75.34 | 45.20 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 393.10 | 393.10 | 393.10 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -120.54 | -75.34 | -45.20 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 272.56 | 317.76 | 347.90 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 400.25 | 400.25 | 400.25 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.68 | 0.79 | 0.87 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.68 | 0.79 | 0.87 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.20 | 1.32 | 1.39 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 0.95% | 1.95% | 2.95% |
| Fair Value | $14.92 | $18.78 | $23.31 |
| Upside / Downside | -33.32% | -16.05% | 4.19% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 602.70 | 614.43 | 626.38 | 638.57 | 650.99 | 663.66 | 683.57 |
| Payout Ratio | 34.78% | 45.82% | 56.87% | 67.91% | 78.96% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 209.60 | 281.54 | 356.20 | 433.66 | 513.99 | 597.29 | 632.30 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 0.95% | 1.95% | 2.95% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 255.53 | 258.06 | 260.59 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 293.42 | 299.27 | 305.17 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 324.23 | 333.96 | 343.88 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 348.79 | 362.82 | 377.27 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 367.87 | 386.46 | 405.79 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 6,386.25 | 6,708.90 | 7,044.46 |
| Equity Value (M) | 7,976.09 | 8,349.46 | 8,737.15 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 400.25 | 400.25 | 400.25 |
| Fair Value | $19.93 | $20.86 | $21.83 |
| Upside / Downside | -10.92% | -6.75% | -2.42% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |